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eStatcast

Objective Probability Added

OBJ+LoLv0.1.0 · baseline · validated 2026-07-16

What it measures

Win-probability swing from objectives this player's team secured while they were alive and nearby — dragons, heralds, barons, towers.

Formal definition

Per objective: versioned WP weight (baron 0.10, elder 0.12, dragon 0.04, soul 0.09, herald 0.03, tower 0.02, inhib 0.06) credited to participants within 2000 units at capture; sum per game.

Inputs

  • elite monster / building events
  • position proximity at capture

Exclusions

None beyond the standard confidence floor.

Sample & population

Minimum sample
8 games
Baseline population
Same-role players in the same window
Direction
higher better
Unit
prob/game

Percentile interpretation

Objective-first junglers/supports surface here.

Confidence = source confidence × model confidence. Values from baseline models are capped at 0.7. Below-minimum samples display the value grayed out with no percentile.

Example

Securing Baron at 28:00 credits 0.10 split across nearby teammates.

Known limitations

  • Weights are static priors in v0, not state-conditioned WP deltas
  • Proximity credit is a heuristic for participation

Current distribution

career window · n=11 eligible players
p10.02p100.02p250.08p500.16p750.19p900.20p990.20

Change log

  • v0.1.0 · 2026-07-16Initial baseline release

→ Rank players by OBJ+