Duel Outcomes Above Expected
Duel+R6v0.1.0 · experimental · validated 2026-07-16Computed · experimental. Values are computed, but the definition or model may still change.
What it measures
Duels won above what each situation predicted, per 100 duels. Positive means winning fights the situation said they should lose.
Formal definition
Σ(actual − xDuel) over every engagement the player took part in (as attacker: actual = 1; as victim: actual = 0 against the killer's expectation), scaled per 100 duels, using the R6 coefficient set of the shared duel model.
Inputs
- duel events with pre-outcome context
- xduel_r6
Exclusions
None beyond the standard confidence floor.
Sample & population
- Minimum sample
- 60 duels
- Baseline population
- Players in the same game/window with ≥ minimum duels
- Direction
- higher better
- Unit
- wins/100 duels
Percentile interpretation
Read within role: entry fraggers and anchors face systematically different duels.
Confidence = source confidence × model confidence. Values from baseline models are capped at 0.7. Below-minimum samples display the value grayed out with no percentile.
Example
Winning a 0.3-xDuel hold through a freshly opened hatch contributes +0.7.
Known limitations
- v0 coefficients are synthetic-calibrated priors, not fitted on pro Siege
- The model has no term for operator abilities or destructible geometry — a hole shot before the fight is invisible to it
- Vertical advantage is approximated by floor delta only
Current distribution
career window · n=40 eligible playersPercentile spread
Each published percentile placed on the value axis. Only these points were measured — the strip draws no curve between them.
The shaded band is the middle half of the population, p25 to p75. Points between two markers were never published, so nothing is drawn there.
Show the numbers
| Percentile | Value | vs median |
|---|---|---|
| p1 | -11.3 | -11.7 |
| p2 | -9.0 | -9.4 |
| p3 | -7.6 | -7.9 |
| p4 | -7.2 | -7.5 |
| p5 | -6.7 | -7.1 |
| p6 | -6.3 | -6.7 |
| p7 | -5.9 | -6.3 |
| p8 | -5.6 | -5.9 |
| p9 | -5.4 | -5.7 |
| p10 | -5.2 | -5.5 |
| p11 | -5.0 | -5.3 |
| p12 | -4.8 | -5.2 |
| p13 | -4.6 | -5.0 |
| p14 | -4.6 | -4.9 |
| p15 | -4.5 | -4.9 |
| p16 | -4.3 | -4.6 |
| p17 | -3.9 | -4.3 |
| p18 | -3.6 | -4.0 |
| p19 | -3.4 | -3.8 |
| p20 | -3.3 | -3.6 |
| p21 | -3.1 | -3.5 |
| p22 | -3.0 | -3.4 |
| p23 | -2.9 | -3.3 |
| p24 | -2.9 | -3.2 |
| p25 | -2.8 | -3.1 |
| p26 | -2.6 | -3.0 |
| p27 | -2.4 | -2.7 |
| p28 | -2.1 | -2.4 |
| p29 | -2.0 | -2.3 |
| p30 | -1.9 | -2.2 |
| p31 | -1.8 | -2.2 |
| p32 | -1.8 | -2.1 |
| p33 | -1.7 | -2.1 |
| p34 | -1.7 | -2.0 |
| p35 | -1.5 | -1.9 |
| p36 | -1.4 | -1.8 |
| p37 | -1.1 | -1.5 |
| p38 | -0.8 | -1.2 |
| p39 | -0.6 | -1.0 |
| p40 | -0.5 | -0.8 |
| p41 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
| p42 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
| p43 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
| p44 | -0.3 | -0.6 |
| p45 | -0.2 | -0.5 |
| p46 | -0.1 | -0.5 |
| p47 | -0.0 | -0.4 |
| p48 | 0.1 | -0.3 |
| p49 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
| p50 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| p51 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| p52 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| p53 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| p54 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| p55 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| p56 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| p57 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| p58 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| p59 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| p60 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| p61 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| p62 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| p63 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| p64 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| p65 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| p66 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| p67 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| p68 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| p69 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| p70 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| p71 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| p72 | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| p73 | 3.1 | 2.7 |
| p74 | 3.2 | 2.8 |
| p75 | 3.2 | 2.9 |
| p76 | 3.2 | 2.9 |
| p77 | 3.2 | 2.9 |
| p78 | 3.3 | 2.9 |
| p79 | 3.4 | 3.0 |
| p80 | 3.4 | 3.1 |
| p81 | 3.4 | 3.1 |
| p82 | 3.4 | 3.1 |
| p83 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
| p84 | 3.6 | 3.2 |
| p85 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| p86 | 3.9 | 3.5 |
| p87 | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| p88 | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| p89 | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| p90 | 4.3 | 4.0 |
| p91 | 4.6 | 4.3 |
| p92 | 5.0 | 4.6 |
| p93 | 5.4 | 5.0 |
| p94 | 5.9 | 5.5 |
| p95 | 6.3 | 5.9 |
| p96 | 6.5 | 6.1 |
| p97 | 6.6 | 6.3 |
| p98 | 7.4 | 7.0 |
| p99 | 8.5 | 8.2 |
Population
every qualified player's season value
wins/100 duelsseasonn=40
Q1 -2.8 · Median 0.4 · Q3 3.2 — half of the 40 observations fall between Q1 and Q3. droio1 sits at the 99th percentile: higher than 39 of them, level with 1. 7 bins, sized from the spread and the sample.
Show the numbers
| Duel Outcomes Above Expected | Observations | Share |
|---|---|---|
| -13.6 – -10.3 | 1 | 2.5% |
| -10.3 – -6.9 | 1 | 2.5% |
| -6.9 – -3.6 | 6 | 15.0% |
| -3.6 – -0.3 | 10 | 25.0% |
| -0.3 – 3.0 | 11 | 27.5% |
| 3.0 – 6.3 | 9 | 22.5% |
| 6.3 – 9.7 | 2 | 5.0% |
Model card
xduel_r6 v0.1.0Hand-specified directional priors, sanity-calibrated on the synthetic fixture corpus v1 (fictional matches). NOT fitted on production esports data.
Reliability checked on synthetic corpus only; expect miscalibration on real data until re-fit. Confidence for downstream metrics is capped at 0.7 while status=baseline.
- weapon_advWeapon-class matchup advantage (attacker perspective, -1..1)
- dist_closeEngagement below close-range threshold
- dist_longEngagement beyond long-range threshold
- health_diff(attacker HP − victim HP) / 100 at engagement
- armor_advAttacker has armor
- victim_flashedVictim blind fraction (blind ms / 1500, capped)
- attacker_flashedAttacker blind fraction
- through_smokeEngagement through smoke
- attacker_supportedAttacker teammate within trade range
- victim_isolatedVictim's nearest teammate beyond trade range
Coefficients (v0.1.0)
Betting or wagering decisions · Cross-game comparisons · Absolute skill claims
Change log
- v0.1.0 · 2026-07-16Initial baseline release