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eStatcast

Entry Value Above Expected

Entry+R6v0.1.0 · baseline · validated 2026-07-16

What it measures

Opening-engagement value adjusted for difficulty, using the R6 coefficient set of the duel model.

Formal definition

Over opening duels: Σ(actual − xDuel) per round played.

Inputs

  • opening duel events
  • xduel_r6

Exclusions

None beyond the standard confidence floor.

Sample & population

Minimum sample
20 opening duels
Baseline population
Players in the same game/window
Direction
higher better
Unit
value/round

Percentile interpretation

Compare within entry/flex roles.

Confidence = source confidence × model confidence. Values from baseline models are capped at 0.7. Below-minimum samples display the value grayed out with no percentile.

Example

Winning a droned-out 0.45-xDuel entry onto site contributes +0.55.

Known limitations

  • v0 coefficients are synthetic-calibrated priors
  • Vertical angle advantage approximated by floor delta only

Current distribution

career window · n=10 eligible players
p1-0.01p10-0.01p25-0.00p50-0.00p750.00p900.01p990.01

Model card

xduel_r6 v0.1.0
MODELlogistic_regression · baseline
Training data — read this

Hand-specified directional priors, sanity-calibrated on the synthetic fixture corpus v1 (fictional matches). NOT fitted on production esports data.

Calibration

Reliability checked on synthetic corpus only; expect miscalibration on real data until re-fit. Confidence for downstream metrics is capped at 0.7 while status=baseline.

Features
  • weapon_advWeapon-class matchup advantage (attacker perspective, -1..1)
  • dist_closeEngagement below close-range threshold
  • dist_longEngagement beyond long-range threshold
  • health_diff(attacker HP − victim HP) / 100 at engagement
  • armor_advAttacker has armor
  • victim_flashedVictim blind fraction (blind ms / 1500, capped)
  • attacker_flashedAttacker blind fraction
  • through_smokeEngagement through smoke
  • attacker_supportedAttacker teammate within trade range
  • victim_isolatedVictim's nearest teammate beyond trade range
Coefficients (v0.1.0)
intercept0.00
weapon_adv1.00
dist_close0.15
dist_long-0.10
health_diff1.30
armor_adv0.10
victim_flashed1.20
attacker_flashed-1.20
through_smoke-0.50
attacker_supported0.20
victim_isolated0.25
Not intended for

Betting or wagering decisions · Cross-game comparisons · Absolute skill claims

Change log

  • v0.1.0 · 2026-07-16Initial baseline release

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