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Plant Probability Added

PLNT+R6v0.1.0 · baseline · validated 2026-07-16

What it measures

Round-win probability created through defuser plants and plant denials, using round-state swings.

Formal definition

ΔWP credited for completed plants (planter) and disables (defender), averaged per round played.

Inputs

  • plant events
  • round state timeline
  • round WP model

Exclusions

None beyond the standard confidence floor.

Sample & population

Minimum sample
60 rounds
Baseline population
Players in the same game/window
Direction
higher better
Unit
prob/round

Percentile interpretation

Highlights objective-first attackers over pure fraggers.

Confidence = source confidence × model confidence. Values from baseline models are capped at 0.7. Below-minimum samples display the value grayed out with no percentile.

Example

A 1v2 plant with 25s left swings WP sharply; the planter is credited the delta.

Known limitations

  • Uses the shared round-WP baseline mapped to attack/defense; R6-specific fit pending

Model card

round_wp_cs2 v0.1.0
MODELlogistic_regression · baseline
Training data — read this

Hand-specified priors, sanity-calibrated on synthetic fixture corpus v1. NOT fitted on production data.

Calibration

Terminal states pinned to truth; mid-round states are directional priors pending real-data fit.

Features
  • alive_diff(CT alive − T alive) / 5
  • alive_ratio_edgeNear-wipe indicator (±0.5 when a side is down to 1)
  • equip_diff(CT equipment − T equipment) / 5000, clamped
  • bomb_plantedBomb planted indicator
  • bomb_time_pressurePlanted × (1 − bomb-time fraction remaining)
  • late_no_plantNo plant × (1 − round-time fraction remaining)
Not intended for

Live betting · Cross-game comparisons

Change log

  • v0.1.0 · 2026-07-16Initial baseline release

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