Plant Probability Added

PLNT+R6v0.1.0 · experimental · validated 2026-07-16

Computed · experimental. Values are computed, but the definition or model may still change.

What it measures

Round-win probability created through defuser plants and plant denials, using round-state swings.

Formal definition

Positive ΔWP credited for completed plants (planter) and disables (defender), averaged over rounds played. This is the objective-only slice of RWPA: the same swing is counted in both, and the difference between them is the value a player created with kills.

Inputs

plant events
round state timeline
round WP model

Exclusions

None beyond the standard confidence floor.

Sample & population

Minimum sample: 60 rounds
Baseline population: Players in the same game/window
Direction: higher better
Unit: prob/round

Percentile interpretation

Highlights objective-first attackers over pure fraggers.

Confidence = source confidence × model confidence. Values from baseline models are capped at 0.7. Below-minimum samples display the value grayed out with no percentile.

Example

A 1v2 plant with 25s left swings WP sharply; the planter is credited the delta.

Known limitations

The round-win-probability model is the shared CS2 baseline mapped onto attack/defense; its round and objective clocks are CS2's, so the timing term is approximate for Siege.
Only the player who completes the action is credited; the round's plant is a team achievement the metric attributes to one person
Negative swings are not debited, so a cancelled or badly-timed plant costs nothing here

Model card

round_wp_cs2 v0.1.0

MODELlogistic_regression · baseline

Training data — read this

Hand-specified priors, sanity-calibrated on synthetic fixture corpus v1. NOT fitted on production data.

Calibration

Terminal states pinned to truth; mid-round states are directional priors pending real-data fit.

Features

alive_diff(CT alive − T alive) / 5
alive_ratio_edgeNear-wipe indicator (±0.5 when a side is down to 1)
equip_diff(CT equipment − T equipment) / 5000, clamped
bomb_plantedBomb planted indicator
bomb_time_pressurePlanted × (1 − bomb-time fraction remaining)
late_no_plantNo plant × (1 − round-time fraction remaining)

Not intended for

Live betting · Cross-game comparisons

Change log

v0.1.0 · 2026-07-16Initial baseline release

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