Round Win Probability Added

RWPAR6v0.1.0 · experimental · validated 2026-07-16

Computed · experimental. Values are computed, but the definition or model may still change.

What it measures

How much a player's kills and objective actions moved their team's chance of winning rounds, per round played.

Formal definition

Round win probability is evaluated before and after each attributable event (kills, defuser plants and disables); positive ΔWP is credited to the acting player and averaged over rounds played. Includes the objective term that Plant Probability Added reports on its own.

Inputs

kill events
plant events
round state timeline
round_wp_cs2 model

Exclusions

rounds with missing side or start-time state

Sample & population

Minimum sample: 60 rounds
Baseline population: Players in the same game/window with ≥ minimum rounds
Direction: higher better
Unit: win prob/round

Percentile interpretation

Round-impact density rather than volume; pairs with Plant Probability Added.

Confidence = source confidence × model confidence. Values from baseline models are capped at 0.7. Below-minimum samples display the value grayed out with no percentile.

Example

An opening kill on the site anchor moves WP 0.50 → 0.62; the attacker is credited +0.12.

Known limitations

The round-win-probability model is the shared CS2 baseline mapped onto attack/defense; its round and objective clocks are CS2's, so the timing term is approximate for Siege.
Non-event contributions — droning space open, holding an angle that is never tested — are not credited in v0
Victims are not debited, so this reads as value created rather than net value

Model card

round_wp_cs2 v0.1.0

MODELlogistic_regression · baseline

Training data — read this

Hand-specified priors, sanity-calibrated on synthetic fixture corpus v1. NOT fitted on production data.

Calibration

Terminal states pinned to truth; mid-round states are directional priors pending real-data fit.

Features

alive_diff(CT alive − T alive) / 5
alive_ratio_edgeNear-wipe indicator (±0.5 when a side is down to 1)
equip_diff(CT equipment − T equipment) / 5000, clamped
bomb_plantedBomb planted indicator
bomb_time_pressurePlanted × (1 − bomb-time fraction remaining)
late_no_plantNo plant × (1 − round-time fraction remaining)

Not intended for

Live betting · Cross-game comparisons

Change log

v0.1.0 · 2026-07-16Initial baseline release

→ Rank players by RWPA