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Duel Outcomes Above Expected

Duel+VALv0.1.0 · baseline · validated 2026-07-16

Computed. The pipeline computes this metric and its values are ranked.

What it measures

Duels won above what each situation predicted (weapons, health, flashes, smoke, support), per 100 duels.

Formal definition

Σ(actual − xDuel) over engagements, per 100 duels, using the VALORANT coefficient set of the shared duel model.

Inputs

  • duel events from authorized replays/recordings
  • flash/blind states
  • support distances

Exclusions

None beyond the standard confidence floor.

Sample & population

Minimum sample
75 duels
Baseline population
Players in the same game/window
Direction
higher better
Unit
wins/100 duels

Percentile interpretation

90th percentile ≈ elite raw dueling above situational expectation.

Confidence = source confidence × model confidence. Values from baseline models are capped at 0.7. Below-minimum samples display the value grayed out with no percentile.

Example

Winning a Sheriff-vs-Vandal duel at range (xDuel 0.28) contributes +0.72.

Known limitations

  • v0 coefficients are priors calibrated on synthetic fixtures
  • Recording-derived duels carry OCR/vision confidence; low-confidence events are excluded

Model card

xduel_valorant v0.1.0
MODELlogistic_regression · baseline
Training data — read this

Hand-specified directional priors, sanity-calibrated on the synthetic fixture corpus v1 (fictional matches). NOT fitted on production esports data.

Calibration

Reliability checked on synthetic corpus only; expect miscalibration on real data until re-fit. Confidence for downstream metrics is capped at 0.7 while status=baseline.

Features
  • weapon_advWeapon-class matchup advantage (attacker perspective, -1..1)
  • dist_closeEngagement below close-range threshold
  • dist_longEngagement beyond long-range threshold
  • health_diff(attacker HP − victim HP) / 100 at engagement
  • armor_advAttacker has armor
  • victim_flashedVictim blind fraction (blind ms / 1500, capped)
  • attacker_flashedAttacker blind fraction
  • through_smokeEngagement through smoke
  • attacker_supportedAttacker teammate within trade range
  • victim_isolatedVictim's nearest teammate beyond trade range
Coefficients (v0.1.0)
intercept0.00
weapon_adv1.60
dist_close0.10
dist_long-0.05
health_diff1.50
armor_adv0.20
victim_flashed1.70
attacker_flashed-1.70
through_smoke-0.60
attacker_supported0.15
victim_isolated0.20
Not intended for

Betting or wagering decisions · Cross-game comparisons · Absolute skill claims

Change log

  • v0.1.0 · 2026-07-16Initial baseline release

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