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Duel Outcomes Above Expected

Duel+VALv0.1.0 · baseline · validated 2026-07-16

What it measures

Duels won above what each situation predicted (weapons, health, flashes, smoke, support), per 100 duels.

Formal definition

Σ(actual − xDuel) over engagements, per 100 duels, using the VALORANT coefficient set of the shared duel model.

Inputs

  • duel events from authorized replays/recordings
  • flash/blind states
  • support distances

Exclusions

None beyond the standard confidence floor.

Sample & population

Minimum sample
75 duels
Baseline population
Players in the same game/window
Direction
higher better
Unit
wins/100 duels

Percentile interpretation

90th percentile ≈ elite raw dueling above situational expectation.

Confidence = source confidence × model confidence. Values from baseline models are capped at 0.7. Below-minimum samples display the value grayed out with no percentile.

Example

Winning a Sheriff-vs-Vandal duel at range (xDuel 0.28) contributes +0.72.

Known limitations

  • v0 coefficients are priors calibrated on synthetic fixtures
  • Recording-derived duels carry OCR/vision confidence; low-confidence events are excluded

Current distribution

career window · n=30 eligible players
p1-8.20p10-5.30p25-2.43p50-0.12p753.53p905.68p998.78

Model card

xduel_valorant v0.1.0
MODELlogistic_regression · baseline
Training data — read this

Hand-specified directional priors, sanity-calibrated on the synthetic fixture corpus v1 (fictional matches). NOT fitted on production esports data.

Calibration

Reliability checked on synthetic corpus only; expect miscalibration on real data until re-fit. Confidence for downstream metrics is capped at 0.7 while status=baseline.

Features
  • weapon_advWeapon-class matchup advantage (attacker perspective, -1..1)
  • dist_closeEngagement below close-range threshold
  • dist_longEngagement beyond long-range threshold
  • health_diff(attacker HP − victim HP) / 100 at engagement
  • armor_advAttacker has armor
  • victim_flashedVictim blind fraction (blind ms / 1500, capped)
  • attacker_flashedAttacker blind fraction
  • through_smokeEngagement through smoke
  • attacker_supportedAttacker teammate within trade range
  • victim_isolatedVictim's nearest teammate beyond trade range
Coefficients (v0.1.0)
intercept0.00
weapon_adv1.60
dist_close0.10
dist_long-0.05
health_diff1.50
armor_adv0.20
victim_flashed1.70
attacker_flashed-1.70
through_smoke-0.60
attacker_supported0.15
victim_isolated0.20
Not intended for

Betting or wagering decisions · Cross-game comparisons · Absolute skill claims

Change log

  • v0.1.0 · 2026-07-16Initial baseline release

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