Round Win Probability Added
RWPAVALv0.1.0 · experimental · validated 2026-07-16Computed · experimental. Values are computed, but the definition or model may still change.
What it measures
How much a player's kills and spike actions moved their team's chance of winning rounds, per round played.
Formal definition
Round win probability is evaluated before and after each attributable event (kills, spike plants and defuses); positive ΔWP is credited to the acting player and averaged over rounds played.
Inputs
- kill events
- spike events
- round state timeline
- round_wp_cs2 model
Exclusions
- rounds with missing side or start-time state
Sample & population
- Minimum sample
- 60 rounds
- Baseline population
- Players in the same game/window with ≥ minimum rounds
- Direction
- higher better
- Unit
- win prob/round
Percentile interpretation
90th percentile ≈ consistently decisive in rounds, not merely high-fragging.
Confidence = source confidence × model confidence. Values from baseline models are capped at 0.7. Below-minimum samples display the value grayed out with no percentile.
Example
Killing the last defender in a 1v1 post-plant moves win probability from 0.62 to 0.95 → +0.33.
Known limitations
- The round-win-probability model is the shared CS2 baseline mapped onto attack/defense; its round and spike clocks are CS2's, so the timing term is approximate for VALORANT
- Ability usage does not move the model — only kills and spike events are attributable, so utility-led rounds under-credit initiators and controllers
- Victims are not debited, so this reads as value created rather than net value
Current distribution
career window · n=30 eligible playersPercentile spread
Each published percentile placed on the value axis. Only these points were measured — the strip draws no curve between them.
The shaded band is the middle half of the population, p25 to p75. Points between two markers were never published, so nothing is drawn there.
Show the numbers
| Percentile | Value | vs median |
|---|---|---|
| p1 | 0.047 | -0.037 |
| p2 | 0.048 | -0.036 |
| p3 | 0.049 | -0.035 |
| p4 | 0.051 | -0.032 |
| p5 | 0.055 | -0.029 |
| p6 | 0.058 | -0.025 |
| p7 | 0.062 | -0.022 |
| p8 | 0.063 | -0.021 |
| p9 | 0.063 | -0.020 |
| p10 | 0.064 | -0.019 |
| p11 | 0.065 | -0.018 |
| p12 | 0.066 | -0.018 |
| p13 | 0.067 | -0.017 |
| p14 | 0.067 | -0.016 |
| p15 | 0.068 | -0.015 |
| p16 | 0.069 | -0.014 |
| p17 | 0.070 | -0.013 |
| p18 | 0.071 | -0.013 |
| p19 | 0.072 | -0.012 |
| p20 | 0.073 | -0.011 |
| p21 | 0.074 | -0.010 |
| p22 | 0.075 | -0.009 |
| p23 | 0.077 | -0.007 |
| p24 | 0.078 | -0.006 |
| p25 | 0.078 | -0.005 |
| p26 | 0.078 | -0.005 |
| p27 | 0.078 | -0.005 |
| p28 | 0.078 | -0.005 |
| p29 | 0.079 | -0.005 |
| p30 | 0.079 | -0.004 |
| p31 | 0.079 | -0.004 |
| p32 | 0.080 | -0.004 |
| p33 | 0.080 | -0.004 |
| p34 | 0.080 | -0.003 |
| p35 | 0.080 | -0.003 |
| p36 | 0.081 | -0.003 |
| p37 | 0.082 | -0.002 |
| p38 | 0.082 | -0.001 |
| p39 | 0.082 | -0.001 |
| p40 | 0.082 | -0.001 |
| p41 | 0.082 | -0.001 |
| p42 | 0.082 | -0.001 |
| p43 | 0.083 | -0.001 |
| p44 | 0.083 | -0.001 |
| p45 | 0.083 | -0.000 |
| p46 | 0.083 | -0.000 |
| p47 | 0.083 | -0.000 |
| p48 | 0.083 | -0.000 |
| p49 | 0.083 | -0.000 |
| p50 | 0.084 | 0.000 |
| p51 | 0.084 | 0.000 |
| p52 | 0.084 | 0.000 |
| p53 | 0.084 | 0.000 |
| p54 | 0.084 | 0.000 |
| p55 | 0.084 | 0.000 |
| p56 | 0.084 | 0.001 |
| p57 | 0.085 | 0.001 |
| p58 | 0.085 | 0.001 |
| p59 | 0.086 | 0.002 |
| p60 | 0.088 | 0.004 |
| p61 | 0.090 | 0.006 |
| p62 | 0.091 | 0.008 |
| p63 | 0.092 | 0.008 |
| p64 | 0.092 | 0.008 |
| p65 | 0.092 | 0.009 |
| p66 | 0.093 | 0.010 |
| p67 | 0.095 | 0.011 |
| p68 | 0.096 | 0.013 |
| p69 | 0.098 | 0.014 |
| p70 | 0.098 | 0.015 |
| p71 | 0.099 | 0.016 |
| p72 | 0.100 | 0.016 |
| p73 | 0.100 | 0.017 |
| p74 | 0.100 | 0.017 |
| p75 | 0.100 | 0.017 |
| p76 | 0.101 | 0.017 |
| p77 | 0.104 | 0.021 |
| p78 | 0.107 | 0.024 |
| p79 | 0.110 | 0.027 |
| p80 | 0.111 | 0.028 |
| p81 | 0.112 | 0.028 |
| p82 | 0.112 | 0.028 |
| p83 | 0.112 | 0.028 |
| p84 | 0.113 | 0.029 |
| p85 | 0.113 | 0.030 |
| p86 | 0.114 | 0.030 |
| p87 | 0.116 | 0.032 |
| p88 | 0.118 | 0.034 |
| p89 | 0.120 | 0.037 |
| p90 | 0.122 | 0.039 |
| p91 | 0.125 | 0.041 |
| p92 | 0.127 | 0.044 |
| p93 | 0.130 | 0.046 |
| p94 | 0.130 | 0.047 |
| p95 | 0.131 | 0.047 |
| p96 | 0.131 | 0.047 |
| p97 | 0.135 | 0.051 |
| p98 | 0.143 | 0.059 |
| p99 | 0.150 | 0.067 |
Population
every qualified player's season value
win prob/roundseasonn=30
Q1 0.078 · Median 0.084 · Q3 0.100 — half of the 30 observations fall between Q1 and Q3. qorren sits at the 98th percentile: higher than 29 of them, level with 1. 8 bins, sized from the spread and the sample.
Show the numbers
| Round Win Probability Added | Observations | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 0.046 – 0.060 | 2 | 6.7% |
| 0.060 – 0.074 | 5 | 16.7% |
| 0.074 – 0.088 | 11 | 36.7% |
| 0.088 – 0.102 | 5 | 16.7% |
| 0.102 – 0.116 | 3 | 10.0% |
| 0.116 – 0.130 | 2 | 6.7% |
| 0.130 – 0.144 | 1 | 3.3% |
| 0.144 – 0.158 | 1 | 3.3% |
Model card
round_wp_cs2 v0.1.0Hand-specified priors, sanity-calibrated on synthetic fixture corpus v1. NOT fitted on production data.
Terminal states pinned to truth; mid-round states are directional priors pending real-data fit.
- alive_diff(CT alive − T alive) / 5
- alive_ratio_edgeNear-wipe indicator (±0.5 when a side is down to 1)
- equip_diff(CT equipment − T equipment) / 5000, clamped
- bomb_plantedBomb planted indicator
- bomb_time_pressurePlanted × (1 − bomb-time fraction remaining)
- late_no_plantNo plant × (1 − round-time fraction remaining)
Live betting · Cross-game comparisons
Change log
- v0.1.0 · 2026-07-16Initial baseline release