Box score
borderxDuel/Duel+/RWPA are MODEL from telemetry (model versions on hover in the glossary) — conventional columns carry their per-line source label.
Win probability
Northlight Guild perspective · round_wp baseline modelRound-level model (round_wp, baseline). The probability resets each round; the line breaks at every round boundary. See the model card for calibration.
Round win probability for Northlight Guild versus Palegate Athletics across 6 rounds. Each round is shown separately because the probability resets every round. Below, the cumulative round differential ends at -4 for Northlight Guild.
Round timeline
blue = defense-side win, orange = attack-side · ○ elim · ◆ objective · ◷ time
Hardest duels won
lowest pre-fight win probability, converted| Rnd | Winner | Victim | xDuel | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | oskek1 | nalun | 20% | r6_pistol · opening |
| 6 | syleth | nalren88 | 31% | r6_ar · HS |
| 2 | zephys | nalren88 | 38% | r6_pistol · opening |
| 2 | fenvax | nalek | 39% | r6_pistol · HS |
| 1 | kalren | paxun | 40% | r6_shotgun · HS |
| 4 | oskek1 | zephys | 41% | r6_pistol · HS |
| 4 | syleth | oskek1 | 43% | r6_pistol · HS |
| 5 | fenvax | yendak7 | 47% | r6_ar · opening |
Data provenance
artifacts, parsers, models- Basic stats: synthetic_fixture SUBMITTED
- Parser: synthetic-sim@1
- Duel model: xduel_r6@0.1.0
- WP model: round_wp_cs2@0.1.0 (baseline — see model cards)
- Mean event confidence: 100.0%