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Duel Outcomes Above Expected

Duel+CS2v0.1.0 · baseline · validated 2026-07-16

What it measures

Duels won above what the situations predicted, per 100 duels. Positive means winning fights they 'should' lose; negative means dropping favorable fights.

Formal definition

Σ(actual − xDuel) over all engagements a player participated in (as attacker: actual=1 if kill; as victim: actual=0 and expectation = 1 − xDuel of the killer), scaled per 100 duels.

Inputs

  • cs2_xduel per duel
  • duel participation

Exclusions

None beyond the standard confidence floor.

Sample & population

Minimum sample
75 duels
Baseline population
Players in the same game/window with ≥ minimum duels
Direction
higher better
Unit
wins/100 duels

Percentile interpretation

90th percentile ≈ elite raw dueling above situational expectation.

Confidence = source confidence × model confidence. Values from baseline models are capped at 0.7. Below-minimum samples display the value grayed out with no percentile.

Example

Winning an 0.25-xDuel retake duel contributes +0.75; losing a 0.80 duel contributes −0.80.

Known limitations

  • Inherits xDuel model error
  • Small samples are noisy — percentiles hidden below minimum

Current distribution

career window · n=40 eligible players
p1-9.83p10-3.74p25-2.12p500.44p751.62p903.25p996.39

Model card

xduel_cs2 v0.1.0
MODELlogistic_regression · baseline
Training data — read this

Hand-specified directional priors, sanity-calibrated on the synthetic fixture corpus v1 (fictional matches). NOT fitted on production esports data.

Calibration

Reliability checked on synthetic corpus only; expect miscalibration on real data until re-fit. Confidence for downstream metrics is capped at 0.7 while status=baseline.

Features
  • weapon_advWeapon-class matchup advantage (attacker perspective, -1..1)
  • dist_closeEngagement below close-range threshold
  • dist_longEngagement beyond long-range threshold
  • health_diff(attacker HP − victim HP) / 100 at engagement
  • armor_advAttacker has armor
  • victim_flashedVictim blind fraction (blind ms / 1500, capped)
  • attacker_flashedAttacker blind fraction
  • through_smokeEngagement through smoke
  • attacker_supportedAttacker teammate within trade range
  • victim_isolatedVictim's nearest teammate beyond trade range
Coefficients (v0.1.0)
intercept0.00
weapon_adv1.80
dist_close0.10
dist_long-0.05
health_diff1.40
armor_adv0.25
victim_flashed1.60
attacker_flashed-1.60
through_smoke-0.70
attacker_supported0.15
victim_isolated0.20
Not intended for

Betting or wagering decisions · Cross-game comparisons · Absolute skill claims

Change log

  • v0.1.0 · 2026-07-16Initial baseline release

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