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eStatcast

Opening Impact

OICS2v0.1.0 · baseline · validated 2026-07-16

What it measures

Value created in the first duel of each round, adjusted for how difficult those opening situations were and how often they convert to round wins.

Formal definition

Over opening duels only: Σ(actual − xDuel) × |ΔWP of the opening| per round played. Winning hard openings that swing rounds scores highest; losing favorable openings scores negative.

Inputs

  • opening duels
  • cs2_xduel
  • round WP deltas

Exclusions

None beyond the standard confidence floor.

Sample & population

Minimum sample
25 opening duels
Baseline population
Players in the same game/window with ≥ minimum openings
Direction
higher better
Unit
value/round

Percentile interpretation

Separates true entry value from padded opening-kill counts.

Confidence = source confidence × model confidence. Values from baseline models are capped at 0.7. Below-minimum samples display the value grayed out with no percentile.

Example

T entry wins a 0.35-xDuel opening that moves WP by 0.14 → contributes (1−0.35)×0.14.

Known limitations

  • Entry attempts that draw utility without a duel are invisible in v0

Current distribution

career window · n=25 eligible players
p1-0.01p10-0.01p25-0.00p50-0.00p75-0.00p900.00p990.00

Model card

xduel_cs2 v0.1.0
MODELlogistic_regression · baseline
Training data — read this

Hand-specified directional priors, sanity-calibrated on the synthetic fixture corpus v1 (fictional matches). NOT fitted on production esports data.

Calibration

Reliability checked on synthetic corpus only; expect miscalibration on real data until re-fit. Confidence for downstream metrics is capped at 0.7 while status=baseline.

Features
  • weapon_advWeapon-class matchup advantage (attacker perspective, -1..1)
  • dist_closeEngagement below close-range threshold
  • dist_longEngagement beyond long-range threshold
  • health_diff(attacker HP − victim HP) / 100 at engagement
  • armor_advAttacker has armor
  • victim_flashedVictim blind fraction (blind ms / 1500, capped)
  • attacker_flashedAttacker blind fraction
  • through_smokeEngagement through smoke
  • attacker_supportedAttacker teammate within trade range
  • victim_isolatedVictim's nearest teammate beyond trade range
Coefficients (v0.1.0)
intercept0.00
weapon_adv1.80
dist_close0.10
dist_long-0.05
health_diff1.40
armor_adv0.25
victim_flashed1.60
attacker_flashed-1.60
through_smoke-0.70
attacker_supported0.15
victim_isolated0.20
Not intended for

Betting or wagering decisions · Cross-game comparisons · Absolute skill claims

Change log

  • v0.1.0 · 2026-07-16Initial baseline release

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