Death Cost
DCOSTLoLv0.1.0 · baseline · validated 2026-07-16What it measures
Win probability surrendered through deaths, weighted by game phase and shutdown gold handed over.
Formal definition
Per death: 0.02 + 0.01 × (minute ÷ 10) + 0.005 × (bounty ÷ 300). Summed per game.
Inputs
- champion kill events (as victim)
- bounty amounts
- timestamps
Exclusions
None beyond the standard confidence floor.
Sample & population
- Minimum sample
- 8 games
- Baseline population
- Same-role players in the same window
- Direction
- lower better
- Unit
- prob/game
Percentile interpretation
Lower is better — discipline under leads shows up here.
Confidence = source confidence × model confidence. Values from baseline models are capped at 0.7. Below-minimum samples display the value grayed out with no percentile.
Example
A 900-bounty death at 32 minutes costs ≈ 0.067; a lane trade death at 6 minutes ≈ 0.026.
Known limitations
- Static weights in v0; not conditioned on map state
Current distribution
career window · n=35 eligible playersChange log
- v0.1.0 · 2026-07-16Initial baseline release